IPL is famous both for being an amazing domestic tournament in cricket as well as for the betting economy it sustains. Betting is no crime in India because it involves an element of informed decisions. If you too are a bettor and want to know how data analysis will help you make better predictions, keep reading the article.
- Head-to-Head Records
Head-to-head records refer to a culmination of the trajectory of performances of players and teams against their rivals. In simple words, a data set about how a player performs against another player or how a team performs against another team is called a head-to-head record. When it comes to making predictions, such records are of great use. As has been mentioned, they can be used in two ways.
The first way is to compare the performances of the teams against each other. Suppose, team A has been doing exceptionally well throughout the season and were table toppers. They only lost two matches against team B who stands at number 3 in the table. After the eliminator and the qualifier rounds, team A and team B make it to the finals. Who do you think has a better chance of winning in this scenario? Well, people can argue that since team A lost only 2 matches throughout the season they are a strong team and hence, have a higher chance of winning. Whereas, the fact that they only lost to team B gives team B an upper hand because team A will be under double pressure. One, it is the final of the tournament. Two, team B knows their weak points or is better than them in some ways.
When such records are analyzed well, it is easier to predict who is likely to be the winner. The same formula can be applied to assess the winning possibilities of teams during the league stage. You can compare the performances and head-to-head outcomes of two rivals over several years. Chennai Super Kings for example is a cult favorite and under MS Dhoni’s captaincy, they have managed to enter the finals the most number of times. Yet, Mumbai Indians, the team with the maximum trophies, always seems to be having an upper hand.
About individual players, you can keep a record of rivalries among players. Jasprit Bumrah, for an instance, is the undisputed rival of King Kolhi in domestic cricket. Knowing the stats and facts can help you predict things like how much Kohli will score, whether Bumrah will get his wicket in a particular match, or if any of them does not play which team stands to lose, etc.
One caution needs to be exercised while one examines the head-to-head records. Statistics don’t hold water in case of exceptional results. For example, Mumbai and Chennai have faced each other 34 times in the past. Mumbai won 20 matches while the Kings have managed to win over 14 times. Now if you go by stats, you are likely to have your bets on Mumbai. But what if it is one of those 14 days when Chennai won?
- Statistical Models
Just like calculators for mathematical operations, data aggregators have come up with statistical models to make better predictions about a match. These models work on formulas where inputs are variables like team strength, home advantage, past performances, etc. It is not possible for a layman to understand these models easily. Hence, it is advised to use various applications available online that will do the job for you.
The most basic operation done by a cricketing model will be who has a better chance of winning the match. But as you enter the world of betting and invest in better applications, you may also find other results.
- Weather
Do not forget to use science for understanding the weather conditions of the day and particularly for the four hours while the match is played. Weather plays a crucial role in determining the outcome of an IPL match, especially if it is a weekend match played during the day. Dew is an important factor for the night matches in IPL. A clear sky restricts the swinging ability of a ball. Hence, it is easier for a batsman to predict the line and length of the ball bowled under a clear sky. The bright sun helps in baking the pitch which gives the batsman a good pace to hit the ball at. Humidity helps fast bowlers in taking wickets. Seamers bowl better in overcast as the ball gets greater swing. Rain also works in favor of the fast bowlers.
- Match Information
It might seem irrelevant but match information is an important set of data that bettors should look at before making decisions. The time of the match can influence the game in great ways. Westerners might not be in a good condition to play under the scorching April heat of the Indian subcontinent. Hence, in day matches indigenous players are likely to fare better.
Dates are important too even if they seem inconsequential to you. For example, Mumbai Indians always get to play a match on Sachin Tendulkar’s birthday if the tournament is played during those months. Mumbai’s players are likely to be highly motivated on that day and history is a testimony to the fact that they have won most matches played on that day.
Similarly, the venue decides who the crowd is going to support. The kind of support people get on their home grounds also works as a motivating factor on the day of the match, unless you are Chennai having supporters in every city.
Conclusion
Betting is a risky activity and people need to be responsible about their choices. You might lose your hard-earned money while hoping for a great return or you might just end up addicted to the activity. It is advised for people to only invest money that they own and not resort to malpractices to appropriate money. Children and teenagers below the age of 18 should strictly remain away from such activities. They should invest their heart and not their brains in the game. While a bettor should always play with his/ her mind.
